Listen to the broadcast version of this story that ran on Kootenay Morning on May 11, 2026:
By Jaime Frederick, Local Journalism Initiative
While many have been enjoying the warm, dry spring in the West Kootenay this year, according to British Columbia’s snow survey and water supply bulletin, which includes data up to May 1, low snowpack, early snowmelt and warm seasonal weather forecasts are elevating drought hazards for this upcoming season.
Jonathan Boyd, a hydrologist with the province’s River Forecast Centre, says the situation developed with precipitation that arrived in the form of atmospheric rivers in both December and March, and has become a tale of two different zones, with huge variation in the snowpack dependent largely on elevation.
“For areas in, say, the Boundary and the West Kootenay, we did have those atmospheric rivers but when they do occur, they are warmer,” said Boyd. “So that low and mid-elevation snow pack didn’t really develop and it’s, of course, more noticeable in the Kettle [River basin], which doesn’t necessarily have the higher elevation. Whereas getting into the high elevation, so areas very close to Nelson, Redfish Creek, the snow station [there], it reached all time record highs for April.”
Boyd also notes that the East Creek snow station in the West Kootenay, located in the headwaters of the Duncan Reservoir, set a new record value for snow pack in April, with the previous high established in 1980.
“So the high elevation ended up getting a lot of snow, the mid elevation was kind of in between and then the low elevation, there was a point in time in the year where the Nelson station, it’s just a manual site, but it was actually recording a record low. So, when all the numbers get averaged out, the West Kootenay came in kind of looking like normal, but it’s really a tale of two stories where, lower elevation watershed, smaller watersheds, may actually be already out of snow, much more susceptible to drought. And then the bigger watersheds, or also just smaller creeks like Redfish Creek or Duhamel Creek, their source is such a high elevation snow pack that they likely will do fairly well for the rest of the season.”
He contrasts the situation in the West Kootenay with that in the Boundary, which has a very low snowpack, and the Okanagan, which Boyd describes as having a dismal snowpack this year.
“It’s just been a really interesting year where we’ve got some extremes in terms of how low it is, but then also extremes, at those higher elevations, where the snow pack is quite healthy and there still will be a risk for flooding in some of those areas that still hold the high elevation snow.”
Another factor that plays into the concerns for drought in the weeks and months ahead is the rate at which snow is melting, particularly at those higher elevations. Boyd says warmer than average temperatures in late April and early May have contributed to faster and earlier snow melt than usual.
“The April temperatures were really warm. It was dry as well. So we did kick off some decent amount of melting in April. And so far, right now, as of this first week of May, it’s been the fastest melt rate from May 1st to today that we’ve had since 1988. And whether we’ll keep that pace, I don’t know, as it cools down a little bit, but it’s been just a dramatic turn. And it’s a catch-22. If there’s an area that has the higher snow pack at the higher elevation, it’s actually going to be a positive in terms of it melts some of the snow early, which might mean that the peak snow when it eventually does occur may be lessened a little bit because of that.”
Similarly, at lower elevations, which did not see significant snow accumulation over the winter, earlier than normal snow melt was prompted by the recent warm temperatures.
“This year, for sure, the low elevation was really early, even in early April, mid April,” said Boyd. “And then now the mid elevation has just been absolutely rapidly depleted over the last week and [we are] starting to see across the province that high elevation [snow pack] is beginning to tick down just with how warm it did get over this past week. And the overnight lows as well just weren’t very low, so it kept the snow melt going overnight.”
So while one might be tempted to draw conclusions about what this means in terms of elevated drought hazard for the coming season, Boyd cautions again that much depends on elevation level and the size of the watersheds in question. Much is also dependent on what is meant by the term “drought.”
“From our perspective at the River Forecast Centre, we speak more to hydrological drought, so just how the rivers are flowing, the creeks are flowing, relative to normal conditions. But drought could also be associated to… the lack of precipitation. Or there’s even the longer term drought or sometimes it’s measured based on water scarcity and whether there’s water availability for ecosystems or domestic or agricultural needs.”
Boyd admits the rapid rate of snow melt is the biggest concern at the moment as an indicator of future drought conditions, but says much is still dependent on the weather over the coming weeks.
“So much ties into what the weather is going to do for the rest of May, June, and July,” he said. “And we have had years where it has melted really early and it was a low snow pack year and we were expecting a drought and there was a reprieve in the sense that the summer was wet and cold….
“And the reprieve, I guess, for areas in the West Kootenay, and [we] see it in a few of the spots in the East, and Upper Columbia too, is just that high elevation snow does exist. It doesn’t get talked about too much, but it’s actually a real positive from a glacier standpoint…. The glaciers have been taking a big hit in the summer months in terms of getting melted out and maybe if we get a cooler summer, there might be a chance where the glaciers actually have an opportunity to grow a little bit this year.”
So while many of us have been enjoying the warm, dry summery weather for the last few weeks, we might all hope for a return to more seasonable temperatures with greater precipitation in the days and weeks ahead.
